September 21, 2005 Source: University of Toronto:
http://www.news.utoronto.ca/bin6/050921-1650.asp GTA greenhouse gases to rise drastically, study says Solution involves fundamental changes in urban design, investing in electric-powered public transportation Sep 21/05 by Karen Kelly (about) (email) Greenhouse gas emissions in the greater Toronto area will rise 30 per cent over the decade ending in 2010 and threaten Canada’s Kyoto targets, predicts University of Toronto research. In a paper published in the September issue of Environment and Planning B, civil engineering professor Chris Kennedy and graduate student Manson Fung studied how emissions will change under the conditions of a strong or weak economy – the results showed that either way the emissions would increase dramatically. “The main factor is population, which will have grown by about 22 per cent over the decade,” Kennedy says. “Much of the rest is due to our increasing Kennedy and Fung developed an econometric model combining economic theory and statistics to create various scenarios of the region’s economic future. Taking into account factors such as inflation and interest rates, the model then integrated simulations of greenhouse gas emissions from residential buildings and the transportation and solid waste sectors. “While a slower economy might mean less construction and therefore lower emissions, we also considered that it could mean no improvements to public transit or waste management,” Kennedy says. “On the flip side, a stronger economy equals more urban sprawl and more greenhouse gases.” While a rise greenhouses gases is inevitable, Kennedy stresses that immediate action is still needed. “The only solution I foresee is fundamental change in urban design, major investments in electric-powered public transportation and a drastic tightening of building codes,” he says. “It is too late to meet Canada’s Kyoto target, but we must think beyond it.” This study was funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. Contact: Professor Chris Kennedy, Department of Civil Engineering, 416-978-5978; e-mail: christopher.kennedy@utoronto.ca use of automobiles, light trucks and construction of energy-inefficient buildings. We have failed to put the necessary infrastructure in place. It’s too late now.”
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