September 8, 2005 Source: University of Saskatchewan:
http://www.usask.ca/events/news/articles/20050908-1.html U of S economists say SK population growth will be limited U of S economists say SK population growth will be limited U of S economists contend that large population growth in Saskatchewan is
unrealistic and should not form the basis for public policy. Large
population growth has no precedent in any of the Great Plains regions in
North America, regardless of the type of government policies that are in
place. Conservative-leaning North and South Dakota have fared no better than
Saskatchewan. Mark Partridge, Canada Research Chair in the New Rural Economy at the
University, says a more realistic pursuit for Saskatchewan policy makers and
business leaders would be to concentrate on how to run a province and do
business in a place where population growth will be relatively modest at
best. Partridge and his colleagues studied population growth in the Great Plains
regions from Saskatchewan to West Texas and found that they have all seen
population losses. "The diversity of government policy environments in the
Great Plain leads to the conclusion that there are no simple political
solutions to the population loss in this region," said fellow-researcher
Murray Fulton. "The only exceptions are in areas of higher amenities or
areas surrounding larger urban centres like Winnipeg or Omaha." A more realistic prediction of population increase would be no more than
10-15 per cent in the next 20 years, says Fulton. But only if Saskatchewan
policy makers focus on the effective and efficient provision of public
services and on providing amenities that will make the province a good place
in which to live and do business. Ineffective programs already in place must
be jettisoned. "To achieve this, Saskatchewan will have to be competitive in
its package of taxes and amenities, including broad tax reductions rather
than targeted reductions or tax incentives which economists generally
believe to be ineffective." The researchers go on to explain that public policy must include the
integration of Aboriginal people into the province's economic and social
mainstream while maintaining cultural identities. "The Aboriginal population
is particularly important to the future of Saskatchewan. The rate of growth
in this population is reasonably high indicating a source of population
growth and strength for the entire province." Parallel to this, making education and training a priority will ensure a
productive and innovative labour force. To this end, policies should
consider intra- and inter-provincial agreements for access to specialized
education and training as well as excellent early childhood education and
care. Also part of the research team, Rose Olfert recommends changes to rural
governance. A major stumbling block to population growth is most
municipalities are too small to attract business and do not have sufficient
resources to provide adequate infrastructure to retain their population.
"Saskatchewan should consider the layering of larger regional jurisdictions,
anchored on urban centres, over the current municipalities and
Saskatchewan's local governments should be given more taxation tools
including local option sales and fuel taxes." A further boost could come from the development of a major north-south
corridor to facilitate competitive value-added goods and services
production. "With its current inadequate north-south transportation links to
the U.S, Saskatchewan cannot effectively compete with its neighbours." they
concluded. Further research findings about the province's future will be discussed at
the Saskatchewan Centennial conference on September 8th to 10th in Regina. For a copy of the complete policy brief, go to:
http://crerl.usask.ca/policy.php -30- For more information contact: Murray Fulton
Professor of Agricultural Economics
University of Saskatchewan
Tel: (306) 966-8507
Email: murray.fulton@usask.ca Rose Olfert
Professor of Agricultural Economics
University of Saskatchewan
Tel: (306) 966-4023
Email: rose.olfert@usask.ca Mark Partridge
Canada Research Chair in the New Rural Economy
University of Saskatchewan
Tel: (306) 966-4037
Email: mark.partridge@usask.ca or go to:
http://crerl.usask.ca/ for related research and background information
communications@usask.ca for a map showing the North American Population
change during the 1990s
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